Our model gives Zira a 33% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 35% for Neftçi.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Zira have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Neftçi have done so in 0 of their last 1.