Our model gives Zenit a 68% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 11% for Rodina Moskva.

Both teams are projected to score in 41% of simulations, against 59% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Zenit have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Rodina Moskva have done so in 5 of their last 5.