Our model gives Yverdon Sport a 53% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 24% for Étoile Carouge.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Yverdon Sport have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Étoile Carouge have done so in 0 of their last 2.