Our model gives Young Boys a 43% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 34% for Basel.

Both teams are projected to score in 68% of simulations, against 32% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Young Boys have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 4, and Basel have done so in 2 of their last 4.