Our model gives Yokohama F. Marinos a 41% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Fukushima United.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 55% likelihood against 45% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Yokohama F. Marinos have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Fukushima United have done so in 2 of their last 2.