Our model gives Yokohama a 38% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 34% for Albirex Niigata.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 48% likelihood against 52% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Yokohama have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Albirex Niigata have done so in 1 of their last 2.