Our model gives Yenisey a 50% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 22% for Shinnik.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 44% likelihood against 56% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Yenisey have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Shinnik have done so in 2 of their last 4.