Our model gives Wrexham a 29% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 45% for Southampton.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Wrexham have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Southampton have done so in 0 of their last 1.