Our model gives Workington a 35% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 38% for Leek Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 55% of simulations, against 45% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Workington have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Leek Town have done so in 1 of their last 3.