Our model gives Wisła Płock a 23% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 51% for Lech Poznań.

Both teams are projected to score in 52% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Wisła Płock have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Lech Poznań have done so in 4 of their last 6.