Our model gives Wenzhou a 27% chance to win this one, against 30% for a draw and 44% for Shenzhen 2028.

Both teams are projected to score in 46% of simulations, against 54% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Wenzhou have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 4, and Shenzhen 2028 have done so in 2 of their last 3.