Our model gives Welling United a 54% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 24% for Burgess Hill Town.

Both teams are projected to score in 58% of simulations, against 42% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Welling United have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Burgess Hill Town have done so in 2 of their last 3.