Our model gives Watford a 33% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 43% for Southampton.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Watford have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Southampton have done so in 0 of their last 1.