Our model gives Warta Poznań a 43% chance to win this one, against 28% for a draw and 30% for Puszcza Niepołomice.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Warta Poznań have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Puszcza Niepołomice have done so in 1 of their last 3.