Our model gives Wanaka a 50% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 31% for Selwyn United.

Both teams are projected to score in 64% of simulations, against 36% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 64% likelihood against 36% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Wanaka have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Selwyn United have done so in 1 of their last 2.