Our model gives Vitória Guimarães a 55% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 21% for Moreirense.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vitória Guimarães have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Moreirense have done so in 1 of their last 1.