Our model gives Vitória de Sernache a 56% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 18% for Sporting Covilhã.

Both teams are projected to score in 42% of simulations, against 58% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vitória de Sernache have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Sporting Covilhã have done so in 0 of their last 1.