Our model gives Vinotinto FC a 53% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 20% for Atlético JBG.

Both teams are projected to score in 44% of simulations, against 56% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 40% likelihood against 60% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vinotinto FC have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 3, and Atlético JBG have done so in 0 of their last 2.