Our model gives Villa Mitre a 54% chance to win this one, against 31% for a draw and 16% for Alvarado.

Both teams are projected to score in 34% of simulations, against 66% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 34% likelihood against 66% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Villa Mitre have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 4, and Alvarado have done so in 0 of their last 2.