Our model gives Vila Nova a 66% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 14% for Ponte Preta.

Both teams are projected to score in 45% of simulations, against 55% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vila Nova have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Ponte Preta have done so in 0 of their last 3.