Our model gives Vila Nova a 60% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 17% for América Mineiro.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vila Nova have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and América Mineiro have done so in 1 of their last 2.