Our model gives Viking a 69% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 14% for Aalesund.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Viking have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and Aalesund have done so in 1 of their last 3.