Our model gives Vestri a 26% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 53% for Thróttur Reykjavík.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 68% likelihood against 32% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vestri have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Thróttur Reykjavík have done so in 2 of their last 3.