Our model gives Vestri a 21% chance to win this one, against 15% for a draw and 64% for Rīgas FS.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 71% likelihood against 29% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vestri have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Rīgas FS have done so in 1 of their last 4.