Our model gives Verl a 49% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 29% for Fortuna Köln.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Verl have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Fortuna Köln have done so in 0 of their last 2.