Our model gives Ventura County a 52% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 26% for North Texas.

Both teams are projected to score in 62% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 62% likelihood against 38% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Ventura County have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and North Texas have done so in 3 of their last 3.