Our model gives Venados a 56% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 22% for Tapatío.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 37% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 67% likelihood against 33% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Venados have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Tapatío have done so in 1 of their last 3.