Our model gives Venados a 68% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 14% for Alebrijes.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 69% likelihood against 31% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Venados have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 1, and Alebrijes have done so in 1 of their last 1.