Our model gives Vegalta Sendai a 45% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 30% for Tochigi City.

Both teams are projected to score in 53% of simulations, against 48% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 51% likelihood against 49% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vegalta Sendai have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Tochigi City have done so in 1 of their last 2.