Our model gives Vastra Frolunda a 13% chance to win this one, against 16% for a draw and 70% for Elfsborg.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vastra Frolunda have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Elfsborg have done so in 2 of their last 3.