Our model gives Vasco da Gama a 60% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 16% for Vitória.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 47% likelihood against 53% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vasco da Gama have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 6, and Vitória have done so in 2 of their last 5.