Our model gives Vasco da Gama a 49% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 27% for Independiente Medellín.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vasco da Gama have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 1, and Independiente Medellín have done so in 1 of their last 1.