Our model gives Vasco da Gama a 56% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 20% for Coritiba.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vasco da Gama have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 6, and Coritiba have done so in 1 of their last 3.