Our model gives Vardar a 65% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 15% for Sileks.

Both teams are projected to score in 50% of simulations, against 50% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vardar have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Sileks have done so in 2 of their last 3.