Our model gives Vardar a 71% chance to win this one, against 19% for a draw and 10% for Shkëndija Haraçinë.

Both teams are projected to score in 47% of simulations, against 53% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vardar have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 3, and Shkëndija Haraçinë have done so in 1 of their last 3.