Our model gives Vaprus a 15% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 67% for Nõmme Kalju.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vaprus have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Nõmme Kalju have done so in 3 of their last 4.