Our model gives Vancouver Whitecaps a 53% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 26% for Houston Dynamo.

Both teams are projected to score in 60% of simulations, against 40% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 63% likelihood against 37% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vancouver Whitecaps have gone over 2.5 goals in 0 of their last 2, and Houston Dynamo have done so in 1 of their last 3.