Our model gives Van a 19% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 59% for Ararat-Armenia.

Both teams are projected to score in 54% of simulations, against 46% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Van have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Ararat-Armenia have done so in 4 of their last 6.