Our model gives Vaduz a 48% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 28% for Thun.

Both teams are projected to score in 70% of simulations, against 30% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 71% likelihood against 29% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vaduz have gone over 2.5 goals in 5 of their last 6, and Thun have done so in 6 of their last 6.