Our model gives Vaajakoski a 54% chance to win this one, against 18% for a draw and 27% for TP-47.

Both teams are projected to score in 72% of simulations, against 28% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 77% likelihood against 23% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vaajakoski have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 4, and TP-47 have done so in 2 of their last 2.