Our model gives V-Varen Nagasaki a 40% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 34% for Cerezo Osaka.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, V-Varen Nagasaki have gone over 2.5 goals in 1 of their last 2, and Cerezo Osaka have done so in 2 of their last 2.