Our model gives Vänersborgs IF a 27% chance to win this one, against 21% for a draw and 52% for Motala.

Both teams are projected to score in 63% of simulations, against 38% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 65% likelihood against 35% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vänersborgs IF have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 2, and Motala have done so in 1 of their last 3.