Our model gives Vålerenga a 39% chance to win this one, against 23% for a draw and 37% for Fredrikstad.

Both teams are projected to score in 67% of simulations, against 33% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 66% likelihood against 34% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Vålerenga have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Fredrikstad have done so in 1 of their last 3.