Our model gives Urartu a 41% chance to win this one, against 27% for a draw and 32% for Alashkert.

Both teams are projected to score in 57% of simulations, against 43% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 57% likelihood against 43% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Urartu have gone over 2.5 goals in 3 of their last 3, and Alashkert have done so in 3 of their last 3.