Our model gives Universitatea Craiova a 57% chance to win this one, against 24% for a draw and 19% for Petrolul 52.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 50% likelihood against 50% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Universitatea Craiova have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6, and Petrolul 52 have done so in 2 of their last 3.