Our model gives Universitatea Craiova a 60% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 18% for Ararat-Armenia.

Both teams are projected to score in 49% of simulations, against 51% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 49% likelihood against 51% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Universitatea Craiova have gone over 2.5 goals in 4 of their last 6, and Ararat-Armenia have done so in 4 of their last 6.