Our model gives Universidad Guadalajara a 43% chance to win this one, against 25% for a draw and 32% for Jaiba Brava.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 52% likelihood against 48% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Universidad Guadalajara have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 3, and Jaiba Brava have done so in 1 of their last 3.