Our model gives Universidad Chile a 65% chance to win this one, against 20% for a draw and 15% for Huachipato.

Both teams are projected to score in 51% of simulations, against 49% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 56% likelihood against 44% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Universidad Chile have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Huachipato have done so in 2 of their last 3.