Our model gives Universidad Chile a 44% chance to win this one, against 26% for a draw and 29% for Colo-Colo.

Both teams are projected to score in 56% of simulations, against 44% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 53% likelihood against 47% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Universidad Chile have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and Colo-Colo have done so in 3 of their last 3.