Our model gives Universidad Católica a 57% chance to win this one, against 22% for a draw and 21% for O'Higgins.

Both teams are projected to score in 59% of simulations, against 41% where at least one side is kept off the scoresheet.

The model leans toward over 2.5 total goals, giving it a 59% likelihood against 41% for under 2.5.

Looking at recent form across all competitions, Universidad Católica have gone over 2.5 goals in 2 of their last 4, and O'Higgins have done so in 2 of their last 4.